I expect Johnson is likely to cling on to power tonight, he has the backing of his cabinet and they will be putting pressure onto backbenchers as well. The opposition to Johnson appears not to be as organized as the ERGs to Theresa May, and she survived her vote of confidence. However, as I say above, she won her Vote of Confidence and then went just a few months later. So I suspect Johnson will survive tonight's vote, then still end up out within the next 12 months.

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